Key Insights:
- Bitcoin is gearing up for a massive rally toward $120,000 as bearish sentiment quickly turns bullish.
- The put-to-call ratio on Deribit dropping to 0.8 shows strong bullish sentiment among traders.
- A sustained defense of the $108,000 level and a break above $109,500 could invalidate bearish scenarios and push Bitcoin higher.
After spending months trading sideways, Bitcoin appears to be gaining ground for another major rally.
Traders are now showing fresh optimism as bearish sentiment fades. Moreso, futures data now shows a clear shift toward long positions. Here’s why analysts are eyeing a possible Bitcoin surge towards $120,000 soon.
A Tight Trading Range, But Bulls Are Watching Closely
Since midweek, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a narrow range between $107,300 and $110,600. While this kind of price action may seem like a crab-walk on the surface, it has historically ended up in breakouts.
Traders and analysts are now watching the charts for any signs that a major move could be on the horizon.
One reason for this rise in optimism is Bitcoin’s relative strength in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Considering the ongoing risks of a trade war breaking out at any time, many investors are once again turning to Bitcoin as a hedge.
They are viewing it less as a volatile asset and more as a long-term alternative to trad-fi alternatives.
Reduced Demand for Bearish Protection Shows Confidence
Over the weekend, a spike in demand for put options (which profit when prices fall) indicated that some traders were preparing for a downturn. However, that fear was short-lived because by Monday, the put-to-call ratio on Deribit, one of the leading crypto derivatives platforms, dropped to 0.8.
This showed that traders were buying more call options instead, in a show of great bullish sentiment.
This shift away from downside protection shows a rising belief that Bitcoin could soon move higher. In support of this view was the rebound in the futures premium, which had dipped to 3.5% on Saturday.
Just like the put-to-call ratio, this metric climbed back above the 5% neutral mark by Monday. Historically, when this premium rises, it generally means investors are more willing to pay for exposure to future price gains.
Recession Fears Push Investors Toward Bitcoin
Another major catalyst behind Bitcoin’s strengthening narrative is the growing fears over an economic slowdown.
The U.S. recently announced a 25% tariff hike on imports from Japan and South Korea. This led to a spike in U.S. Treasury yields as investors sought higher returns on government debt.
Surprisingly, while this was happening, Bitcoin managed to hold steady above $107,000. BTC is reinforcing its position as not just as a high-risk asset, but as a safe haven, especially in times of political or economic uncertainty.
According to updates from analyst Ted Pillows, Bitcoin has historically been correlated to the global monetary supply.
BTC/M2 Wyckoff accumulation is still on-going.
There was a weekend dump, but now $BTC is moving up again.
Trump has postponed the tariffs deadline till August 1st, which means a green signal for the markets.
It seems like $120K BTC is coming within a few weeks. pic.twitter.com/iAHDVg6bNt
— Ted (@TedPillows) July 7, 2025
If that trend holds true, we may be looking at an incoming push to the upside. According to Pillows, delays in U.S. tariff implementation could further clear the way for Bitcoin to hit $120,000 in the coming months.
Bitcoin Futures Data Points to Bullish Momentum
Bitcoin futures data also adds more weight to the bullish case.
Over the past 30 days, open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures contracts has risen by 7%, which is the first meaningful increase since the massive market pullback in February. Again, historically, rising open interest alongside stable prices shows that new capital is entering the market, and the asset is setting itself up for higher prices.
According to researcher Axel Adler Jr., while a 7% rise is promising, a confirmed breakout might require open interest to grow by at least 10%.Overall, short-term price action shows that Bitcoin may revisit the $107,300 level before making its next big move.
However, if Bitcoin breaks below $107,000, it could temporarily fill the fair value gap down to $106,300.
If the bulls quickly initiate a rebound from this zone, prices could shoot back up above $108,000 and build momentum toward $112,000 and beyond.
In summary, a strong defense of the $108,000 level followed by a clean break above $109,500, would invalidate the bearish scenario entirely. That could set Bitcoin on a fast track toward the $112,000 mark, and possibly even higher.