برچسب: Trading

• Bot-driven activity on Ethereum contributed to the surge in stablecoin volume and pushed stablecoin swaps on DEXs to a new all-time high.
• Record-low gas fees in 2025 made Ethereum mainnet more attractive for stablecoin activity than competing chains.
• Stablecoin transfers and market cap shifted back from L2s to Ethereum L1, reversing last year’s trend and boosting mainnet dominance.

In May 2025, bot activity on Ethereum registered its largest share ever in stablecoin transfers, representing 57% of volume and 31% of transaction count. Bots on Ethereum made over 4.84 million stablecoin transfers, totaling more than $480 billion last month, also reaching all-time high levels.

Increased bot activity helped lift Ethereum L1 back to the center of DeFi activity, boosted existing operations, and caused significant changes in Ethereum’s DEX volume distribution. Here is why this happened — and what this trend could mean for Ethereum going forward.

Low-Fee Environment Fueled the Bot Surge

The most impactful factor that boosted bot activity on Ethereum has been an over 92% drop in mainnet fees in early 2025. With gas prices hovering below 1 gwei in March and April, Ethereum L1 became more cost-competitive in stablecoin transfers not only compared to other L1 networks but even to its L2s. Most of Ethereum’s gains in overall stablecoin activity this year occurred during this record-low-fee period.

However, stablecoin transfers are the most fee-sensitive type of transactions. For example, following the Pectra upgrade in early May, Ethereum L1 saw elevated fees, which led to a 8% decrease in total stablecoin transaction volume and a $1 billion drop in stablecoin market cap. This slowed the growth of bot activity within the network but didn’t reverse it, as the sector was still riding the momentum from the low-fee period.

Chart: Transaction Fee Comparison Between Ethereum and Its L2s

Record-High Bot Activity Helps Reshape Ethereum’s DEX Landscape

Bots were primarily used for automating swaps, arbitrage strategies, and liquidity routing, which contributed to the spike in stablecoin swap dominance on Ethereum’s DEXs. In April and May, stablecoin swaps held the top spot in Ethereum’s DEX activity for two consecutive months for the first time ever, making up 37% and 32% of total DEX volume, respectively.

As a result, USDT and USDC took center stage, increasing its share in DEX volume (green circle). In March and April, USDC even became the most traded asset on Ethereum DEXs.

Ethereum’s transition to a more stablecoin-focused DEX volume  signals a broader transition in Ethereum’s on-chain economy — one that favors utility and payment-focused use cases over speculative trading. In 2025, only two categories saw meaningful DEX volume increases on Ethereum: tokenized assets, which surged by 284%, and stablecoin swaps, up 31%. 

Ethereum Eats Up L2s in the Stablecoin Field

One of the major consequences of Ethereum’s bot expansion and reduced fees was that L1 has been increasingly taking the market share from its L2s.

Stablecoin market cap

So far in 2025, Ethereum mainnet’s stablecoin market cap grew by 11%, while the combined stablecoin market cap on L2s shrunk by 1%. For comparison, in 2024, Ethereum mainnet posted a 65% increase, but L2s collectively surged by 218%. The biggest declines in stablecoin supply among L2s this year have come from Optimism, which lost over $700 million.

Transaction Volume

In total, the Ethereum ecosystem, including mainnet and L2s, processed over $11 trillion in stablecoin transaction volume in 2025 to date, triple the volume seen over the same period in 2024. This brought Ethereum’s share of global stablecoin volume to 60%, up from 40% in 2024, indicating that stablecoin activity has been shifting to Ethereum from other L1 networks as well.

At the time of this writing, L1 and L2s were showing a nearly 50/50 split in monthly transaction volume within the Ethereum ecosystem, with mainnet largely reclaiming positions starting March 2025, or during record-low-fee environment.

Transaction Count

In 2022-2024, L1’s share of stablecoin transactions in the Ethereum ecosystem was primarily declining to as low as 22%, since users increasingly favored L2s for their lower costs. But, in 2025, that trend has also flipped. According to GrowThePie data, Ethereum mainnet recorded over 30 million stablecoin transactions this year, lifting its share in transaction count to 42%.

Chart: Transaction Count Distribution Across Ethereum and Its L2s

Final Thoughts

While bots are often associated with sandwich attacks and frontrunning, Ethereum’s increase of bot activity within the stablecoin field shows that they could be among the major drivers to improve market efficiency, boost stablecoin adoption, and enhance DEX performance — a net positive for users and protocols alike.

Still, stablecoin transfers are highly fee-sensitive, meaning that the network may face a trend reverse and user migration outside Ethereum if fees remain elevated. However, if L1 manages to maintain a low-fee environment over time, this could help Ethereum reclaim further market share in the stablecoin space.

• On-chain RWA value surged by $7.5 billion in 2025, matching 2024 growth, and outperforming other sectors within the DeFi ecosystem.
• Tokenized treasuries led inflows, with Euro bonds doubling its on-chain value and BlackRocks’s BUIDL capturing 79% of U.S.-treasury-based RWA growth in 2025.
• Tokenized gold beat its 2024 figures in both market cap and new holders increases.
• Ethereum ecosystem’s dominance strengthened, hosting over 83% of RWA value on general-purpose chains.

Real-world assets are no longer a side bet in DeFi — they’re becoming the main event. After adding $7.5 billion in on-chain value throughout 2024, the RWA sector matched that figure in the first five months of 2025. On May 13, on-chain RWA value reached $23.8 billion, up from $16.3 billion at the start of the year. 

The surge isn’t just about capital. The number of RWA holders has also crossed a key milestone, surpassing 100,000 addresses, showing a 22% increase in 2025 so far. 

This rapid expansion in both adoption and value comes as most DeFi sectors are seeing stagnation or contraction. With the RWA sector surging by 43% in 2025, its on-chain value briefly surpassed total DEX TVL.

The Drivers Behind the RWA Surge and Biggest Winners

While RWAs as a whole are surging, not all sectors are riding the same wave. In 2025, market uncertainty — not just yield — has become the dominant catalyst, and no asset classes reflect that more than bonds and gold.

Tokenized Euro Bonds Doubled in New On-Chain Value

The sharpest RWA sector spike came from Non-U.S. bonds, which saw a 101% increase in on-chain value in 2025 so far. This sector saw distinct inflection points that coincided with political headlines — most notably, accelerated inflows following Trump’s inauguration and another local jump after a selection of tariffs became effective on March 3-4.

Among Non-U.S. bonds, Euro-denominated ones stand out as the biggest winner, adding $102.6 million in on-chain value in 2025, and already outpacing 2024 on that matter. Most of these inflows went to Spiko’s EUTBL, which now accounts for over 80% of this RWA segment, experiencing 114% and 78% increases in value and holders in 2025, respectively.

However, tokenized Euro bonds account only for 1% of the entire RWA sector, meaning this hasn’t been the biggest landscape mover, despite the local surge.

BUIDL Took Over the U.S. Treasuries Segment

Tokenized U.S. treasuries had a much larger impact on the RWA sector, adding over $2.8 billion in on-chain value throughout this year. Around 79% of these inflows were allocated to BlackRock’s BUIDL, which has been securing the top spot in this segment starting mid-March. March 12, when the EU announced retaliatory tariffs, has also been the turning point in rapid BUIDL expansion, as nearly all of its gains occurred after this date. As such, BUIDL showed a more than 343% increase in new value added year-to-date, outpacing even much smaller funds.

Notably, BUIDL has also been among the leaders in attracting new holders, showing a 57% increase in the first five months of the year. This appears to be remarkable as BUIDL is not available on open markets, and features a much larger entry threshold. According to Amberdata, BUIDL features a minimum investment worth $5 million, while USTB, OUSG, USYC, and TBILL — $100,000. This signifies that the expansion of tokenized U.S. treasuries was primarily driven by institutional investors.

Another catalyst that pushed BUIDL forward was the downfall of USYC, which saw an over 3,000% increase in on-chain value in 2024, and dominated the space between November 2024 and March 2025. USYC experienced an over 73% drop in on-chain value in 2025, which began shortly before Circle’s acquisition of Hashnote, USYC issuer. The USYC drop occurred due to the yield-bearing USD0 stablecoin, which utilizes USYC as a primarily backing asset, and lost 60% of its TVL this year.

Tokenized Gold Overshadowed Its 2024 Performance

In parallel with the surge in fixed-income RWAs, tokenized commodities, especially gold, have emerged as a resilient safe-haven sector, benefitting from the same macro tailwinds. Total market cap for tokenized commodities grew by over $547 million in 2025 to date, with gold-backed tokens accounting for nearly 98% of that growth. 

This momentum has been largely led by Paxos’ PAXG, Tether’s XAUT, and Kinesis’ KAU, which together make up 88% of gold-related trading activity. Among them, XAUT saw the most significant growth in user base, nearly doubling its number of holders (+102%) since January. Despite this, PAXG still dominates the space in terms of holders, outpacing XAUT by nearly 10 times. 

As such, tokenized gold has already managed to beat its 2024 figures in both increased on-chain value and new holders.

While tariff-induced uncertainty served as a major catalyst to boost tokenized gold, activity stayed elevated even after the tariff noise began to subside. On April 22, tokenized gold trading volumes spiked to nearly $400 million, coinciding with gold spot prices hitting an all-time high above $3,500. This is the highest daily trading volume that tokenized gold showed since the U.S. banking crisis in March 2023.

Ethereum Ecosystem Strengthened Its RWA Dominance

In 2025, Ethereum’s role as the central infrastructure layer for RWA has become even more pronounced. The combined Ethereum ecosystem — including both mainnet and L2s — now accounts for over 82% of total RWA value hosted on general-purpose blockchains, up from 75% at the start of the year and 70% in early 2024. 

This growing dominance is driven by two complementary trends: the rise of products originally launched on Ethereum such as BUIDL, and the rapid emergence of new RWA platforms on Ethereum L2s. The most notable example was the debut of Tradable, a private credit-focused platform that deployed over $1.7 billion in assets on zkSync. This single launch catapulted zkSync into the position of second-largest general-purpose blockchain in RWA.

Furthermore, unlike most other chains that depend on a single RWA vertical or flagship project, Ethereum offers the most diversified spectrum of RWA products. This gives Ethereum an inherent advantage: it’s not overly reliant on the success of any one sector. Instead, it acts as the primary execution layer for RWA growth wherever it happens.

While Ethereum dominates the general-purpose blockchain landscape, it’s important to note that in a broader view — including purpose-built blockchains — Provenance technically takes the top spot. This is largely due to its private credit platform Figure, with nearly $10 billion in RWA TVL.

Final Thoughts

RWAs are not only leading the DeFi recovery — they’re setting the pace of it. With over $7 billion in new on-chain value added in under five months, the sector is evolving to become a core infrastructure in both institutional and decentralized finance. 

That said, the sector’s further short-term trajectory will largely hinge on the outcome of the existing tariff uncertainty. If trade tensions escalate, the flight to safe-haven and yield-generating RWAs could intensify even further. But a resolution, or even a de-escalation, could test the sustainability of the current inflows. Either way, RWAs have already proven their staying power as a response to market chaos.

Sources

The data used for this research consists of publicly available information from RWA.xyz, CoinGecko, DeFiLlama, and Amberdata. The observation period for this study was focused on RWA’s 2024-2025 performance, with data points starting January 1, 2024, and ending May 14, 2025.

• Bitcoin’s price correction has the potential to continue, as the daily MACD formed a signal that has consistently indicated short-term bearish dominance.
• Rising leverage and funding rates reflect growing speculative interest but increase the risk of liquidation cascades if major support levels give way.
• Wallets holding 100-1,000 BTC led Bitcoin accumulation over the last three months, indicating a potential bullish trend over the next 6-12 months.

Weekly outlook

Could a V turn into a W?

Over the past week, Bitcoin has displayed a V-shaped price movement, consolidating within a narrow range between $66,700 and $67,700 before briefly testing both $65,300 and $69,000. In our previous analysis, we highlighted that Bitcoin could see imminent correction and/or consolidation throughout last week, as bullish momentum appeared to weaken.

On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator remains in a downtrend (cyan line), suggesting the corrective phase may not be over. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin’s price is trading within the Ichimoku Cloud, with its upper and lower boundaries acting as resistance and support, respectively — indicating market indecision. A breakout outside this cloud could determine whether Bitcoin tests $69,500 or retreats to lower levels. 

While a short-term recovery is possible, it may struggle to gain traction unless the RSI breaks through its resistance. VPVR analysis shows high volume clusters around the 0.236, 0.382, and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting these as key support/resistance zones.

The daily chart indicates a possible continuation of the correction, as the asset formed a bearish divergence with Awesome Oscillator (AO), and a bearish crossover with MACD. Over the last 8 months, the latter typically coincided with local tops (red circles), hinting at short-term bearish dominance. This could push the price below the 20-day EMA, with the 200-day SMA as a potential target. However, the 20-day EMA, near $66,000, remains a key support for bulls; defending this level could weaken the bearish case.

Futures market speculations are getting riskier

Last week, we noted that spikes in Bitcoin open interest often precede short-term corrections. Following the recent jump, Bitcoin’s futures open interest dropped by 7%, while futures volume remained relatively flat. Meanwhile, funding rates have risen on average, and the estimated leverage ratio has jumped to its highest level since August 2023. This increase in leverage suggests heightened speculative optimism but raises the risk of sharp liquidation cascades.

These conditions suggest that Bitcoin could see increased volatility in the short term. A breakdown below the 20-day EMA or other major support levels could trigger increased liquidations, potentially exerting additional downward pressure and potentially intensifying a corrective phase.

Source: CryptoQuant

Longer-term outlook

Sharks return to the tank

Bitcoin whale activity is intensifying, with whale numbers reaching their highest since January 2021, while whale accumulation levels are at a peak not seen since July 2020. Examining holder cohorts reveals that “sharks” (wallets holding 100-1,000 BTC) have led the recent accumulation, collectively adding over 200,000 BTC in the past three months. Historically, such accumulation by sharks has preceded prolonged bullish rallies, as similar patterns were seen roughly six months after the halvings in both 2016 and 2020, before further upward price movement.

Source: Checkonchain

Revived supply shows bullish signs

Bitcoin wallets with a 2-4 year holding period are increasingly active, now representing about 42% of the recently revived supply, up from 29% three months ago. In past cycles, rising activity among these holders has often foreshadowed a rally, as they tend to become increasingly active 6-12 months before the cycle peak.

Source: Checkonchain

Short-term holders gain momentum

​​Long-term holders (LTH) have added around 1,000,000 BTC over the past three months, either through accumulation or by transitioning to LTH status, and now control over 70% of Bitcoin’s supply. However, over the last two weeks, short-term holders (STH) have been increasing their share of the supply, potentially signaling an upward move. Historically, STH accumulation increases during bull markets (green circles). The current supply distribution between STH and LTH mirrors the 2013 rally, where rapid price gains were followed by a 10-month consolidation before another rally.

Source: Checkonchain

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s price held largely to our neutral outlook from last week, remaining within a narrow range. This week could bring heightened volatility, with bears potentially challenging the 200-day SMA. While a rebound is possible, it may be short-lived unless Bitcoin breaks decisively above $70,000, which would likely require a fresh catalyst. Despite near-term uncertainty, the long-term outlook remains bullish, indicating a potential new all-time high could be approaching.

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